Research Papers

Pre-print · Working papers Educational research from the Dextarstoic desk. Figures are illustrative. Not investment advice.

Dextarstoic Research

Research Papers

Working papers and quantitative studies on market structure, risk, and investor behavior — written to be read, not sold. Each paper is versioned, dated, and revised over time. Education only.

3 papers

·Working Paper ·9 min read

Equanimity Under Volatility: Emotional Tilt and Trade-Frequency in Self-Directed Investors

Dextarstoic Research Desk · Working Paper DS-WP-2026-03

We examine whether self-reported equanimity predicts behavioral stability during high-volatility regimes. Pairing a survey instrument with a behavioral proxy for “emotional tilt,” we find that investors scoring high on equanimity show materially smaller spikes in trade frequency when realized volatility rises. The effect persists after controlling for experience and account size — suggesting temperament, not skill alone, moderates overtrading. We close with a lightweight self-assessment to run before sizing a position.

  • psychology
  • volatility
  • behavior
v0.9 · pre-print Last revised 16 Jul 2026 · JEL: G41, D91
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Cite 
@techreport{dextarstoic2026equanimity,
  title       = {Equanimity Under Volatility: Emotional Tilt and
                 Trade-Frequency in Self-Directed Investors},
  author      = {{Dextarstoic Research Desk}},
  institution = {Dextarstoic},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {DS-WP-2026-03},
  year        = {2026},
  month       = {7},
  note        = {Educational research. Not investment advice.},
  url         = {https://dextarstoic.com/pages/research-papers}
}
·Quantitative ·14 min read

Drawdown as Discipline: Position-Sizing Rules and Terminal Wealth in Retail Portfolios

Dextarstoic Research Desk · Working Paper DS-WP-2026-02

We compare fixed-fractional, volatility-targeted, and naïve equal-weight position sizing across 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulated retail portfolios spanning equities and crypto. Risk-first sizing reduces median maximum drawdown by roughly a third versus naïve sizing, at the cost of a modest give-up in compound growth. We argue drawdown reduction is the more decision-relevant statistic for self-directed investors, because it governs whether a strategy is survivable in practice — not merely optimal on paper.

  • risk-management
  • position-sizing
  • monte-carlo
v1.2 Last revised 28 Jun 2026 · JEL: G11, G40
Read paper Download PDF
Cite 
@techreport{dextarstoic2026drawdown,
  title       = {Drawdown as Discipline: Position-Sizing Rules and
                 Terminal Wealth in Retail Portfolios},
  author      = {{Dextarstoic Research Desk}},
  institution = {Dextarstoic},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {DS-WP-2026-02},
  year        = {2026},
  month       = {6},
  note        = {Educational research. Not investment advice.},
  url         = {https://dextarstoic.com/pages/research-papers}
}
·Qualitative ·11 min read

Process Over Prediction: A Rubric for Evaluating Discretionary Trade Journals

Dextarstoic Research Desk · Working Paper DS-WP-2026-01

Outcome and process are routinely conflated when traders review their own decisions. Drawing on a qualitative coding of publicly shared trade journals, we propose a five-dimension rubric — thesis clarity, risk definition, invalidation, sizing rationale, and post-trade review — that separates process quality from outcome luck. We show how the rubric turns a journal from a record of results into an instrument for deliberate practice.

  • methodology
  • journaling
  • behavior
v1.0 Last revised 09 May 2026 · JEL: G41
Read paper Download PDF
Cite 
@techreport{dextarstoic2026process,
  title       = {Process Over Prediction: A Rubric for Evaluating
                 Discretionary Trade Journals},
  author      = {{Dextarstoic Research Desk}},
  institution = {Dextarstoic},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {DS-WP-2026-01},
  year        = {2026},
  month       = {5},
  note        = {Educational research. Not investment advice.},
  url         = {https://dextarstoic.com/pages/research-papers}
}

About these papers

Dextarstoic working papers are educational research — pre-prints revised over time as methods and data improve. They describe frameworks and simulations for self-directed investors and are not personalized financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

Correspondence

research@dextarstoic.com

Risk disclaimer & educational notice

© 2026 Dextarstoic · Educational research, not investment advice · Reproduction permitted with attribution · Process over prediction. Risk before reward.